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篇一：網(wǎng)上拍賣的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)
你也許會(huì)認(rèn)為，如果說(shuō)有一件事經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家應(yīng)該能告訴你如何去做，那就是在拍賣網(wǎng)站eBay上成功登記拍賣物品。畢竟，拍賣理論家在這行享有盛名;其中一位拍賣理論家蘇珊o阿西(Susan Athey)在今年4月贏得了約翰o貝茨o克拉克(John Bates Clark)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)?wù)隆?克拉克獎(jiǎng)?wù)芦@得者還有保羅o薩繆爾森(Paul Samuelson)、約瑟夫o斯蒂格利茨(Joseph Stiglitz)和史蒂文o萊維特(Steven Levitt)，比諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)(Nobel)獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)哌�要罕見(jiàn)。)
You might think that if there's one thing an economist should be able to tell you how to do, it's successfully list an item on the auction website eBay. Auction theorists are, after all, celebrated in the profession; one of them, Susan Athey, won the John Bates Clark medal in April. (Clark medallists, who include Paul Samuelson, Joseph Stiglitz and Steven Levitt, are scarcer than Nobel laureates.)
然而，盡管拍賣理論已經(jīng)很發(fā)達(dá)，但其預(yù)測(cè)容易受到現(xiàn)實(shí)中一些波瀾的影響。比如說(shuō)，標(biāo)準(zhǔn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)假設(shè)人是理性的，這種假設(shè)通常是對(duì)的：在啤酒價(jià)格上漲時(shí)，多數(shù)人都會(huì)少喝一些啤酒。不過(guò)，拍賣要求有 "如果他認(rèn)為她認(rèn)為我認(rèn)為他那么認(rèn)為"的推理鏈條，而這種鏈條往往存在薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。如果任何出價(jià)方有任何理由懷疑其他出價(jià)方是不理性的，那么，這些環(huán)節(jié)就會(huì)輕易斷裂。
Yet although the theory of auctions is well-developed, its predictions are sensitive to wrinkles in reality. For example, the standard economic assumption that people are rational is usually a good one: when the price of beer rises, most people drink less beer. But auctions require "if he thinks that she thinks that I think that he thinks" chains of reasoning that tend to have weak links. Those links can easily break if any bidder has any reason to suspect that any other bidder is irrational.
另一個(gè)理論難題是進(jìn)入拍賣。多數(shù)拍賣理論家假定有固定人數(shù)的拍賣方存在，他們?nèi)紲?zhǔn)備好了要出價(jià)。不過(guò)，雖然經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家可以假設(shè)出價(jià)方存在，eBay的賣方卻不得不去吸引這些人。
Another theoretical conundrum is entry to the auction. Most auction theorists assume a fixed number of bidders, all poised and ready to bid. But while economists can assume bidders into existence, eBay sellers have to go out and hook them.
這不是拍賣理論的一個(gè)微小疏忽。為移動(dòng)電話運(yùn)營(yíng)商舉行的大規(guī)模 "3G"拍賣背后的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家--保羅o克倫佩雷爾(Paul Klemperer)已經(jīng)表明，一場(chǎng)拍賣中看似微不足道的特點(diǎn)可能會(huì)讓出價(jià)方卻步，造成巨大(和災(zāi)難性的)影響。出于這些和其它原因，明智的拍賣理論家在沒(méi)有充分了解整個(gè)背景的情況下，會(huì)避免預(yù)測(cè)某個(gè)具體的拍賣計(jì)劃會(huì)有什么效果。
This is no minor oversight of auction theory. Paul Klemperer, one of the economists behind the massive "3G" auctions for mobile phone operators, has shown that trivial-seeming features of an auction can have big (and disastrous) effects by repelling bidders. For these reasons and others, wise auction theorists would avoid predicting how a specific auction design will work without knowing much more about the context.
篇二：女巫的超前思維
親愛(ài)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家：
Dear Economist,
有一個(gè)關(guān)于古羅馬末代君王塔爾坎(Tarquin)的傳說(shuō)。一位老女巫走到塔爾坎面前，提出以高昂的價(jià)格賣給他9本預(yù)言書。塔爾坎對(duì)這一提議不以為然。女巫燒毀了其中的3本書，然后提出以原價(jià)賣給他剩下的6本。塔爾坎再次拒絕了。
There is a legend about the last king of the Romans, Tarquin. An old witch came to Tarquin, and offered to sell him nine books of prophecy at an exorbitant price. Tarquin laughed at the offer. The witch burned three of the books, and then offered to sell him the remaining six for the original price. Tarquin refused again.
女巫又燒毀了3本，然后同樣以最初9本的價(jià)格向塔爾坎出售剩下的3本。這一次，塔爾坎擔(dān)心自己可能會(huì)錯(cuò)失一些寶貴的東西，于是以女巫索要的價(jià)格買下了剩余3本書。這反映了什么樣的需求曲線呢?
The witch burned three more books and offered to sell Tarquin the three books that were left for the original price that she had demanded for nine. This time Tarquin was scared that he might be losing something precious, and bought the remaining three books for the price that the witch asked. What sort of demand curve is that?
克里斯·麥克馬洪(Chris McMahon)通過(guò)電子郵件發(fā)送
Chris McMahon, by e-mail
親愛(ài)的麥克馬洪：
Dear Mr McMahon,
忘掉需求曲線吧;這是一個(gè)關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)盈余分配的兩方談判。塔爾坎始終愿意出高價(jià)，但同時(shí)希望能夠還價(jià)。女預(yù)言家("女巫"聽(tīng)上去讓人不太舒服)則用限制供應(yīng)的方法來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)，意在推升價(jià)格。
Forget the demand curve; this is a two-player negotiation over the division of economic surplus. Tarquin was always willing to pay a high price but hoped to get a bargain. The sibyl ("witch" is such an uncouth label) responded with a supply constriction designed to drive up the price.
塔爾坎可能會(huì)認(rèn)為，這個(gè)女預(yù)言家只有一位競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性買家，如果每位買家都只想要3本書的話，這將形成供過(guò)于求的局面。而一旦出現(xiàn)兩位買家只有3本書可買的情況，塔爾坎明白，他正面臨嚴(yán)峻的局面，因而搶先報(bào)出了價(jià)格。
Tarquin might have thought that the sibyl had just one rival buyer, and if each buyer wanted only one trilogy, that would be a supply glut. Once there was only one trilogy available for two buyers, Tarquin knew he was in a serious auction and made a pre-emptive offer.
還有一種可能性是，女預(yù)言家正在解決一個(gè)所謂的持久壟斷的問(wèn)題。塔爾坎知道，女預(yù)言家可能會(huì)以高價(jià)向他出售3本書，然后再回頭以低價(jià)出售另外3本或6本。而通過(guò)燒毀6本書，女預(yù)言家讓自己能夠提出一個(gè)真正要不要隨你的出價(jià)。這是一種超前思維，但話說(shuō)回來(lái)，她本來(lái)就是在推銷預(yù)言。
Another possibility is that the sibyl was dealing with the so- called durable monopoly problem. Tarquin knew that the sibyl might sell him an expensive trilogy, and then come back later with a cut- price offer to buy a second or third. By destroying two trilogies, the sibyl enabled herself to make a credible, take-it-or-leave-it offer. Forward-thinking stuff, but then, she was flogging prophecies.
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