美國人的好日子結(jié)束了英語美文
If history is a reliable guide, the recession of 2008 is now unavoidable.
The dismal jobs report released Friday showed overall employment to be lower than it was three months ago. Every time such a slump has occurred since the early 1970s, a recession has followed — or already been under way.
And if the good times have really ended, they were never that good to begin with. Most American households are still not earning as much annually as they did in 1999, once inflation is taken into account. Since the Census Bureau began keeping records in the 1960s, a prolonged expansion has never ended without household income having set a new record.
For months, policy makers and Wall Street economists have been predicting, and hoping, that the aggressive series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve would keep the economy growing, despite the housing bust. But the possibility seemed to diminish almost by the hour on Friday.
Shortly after 8 a.m., the Fed announced yet another measure meant to unlock the struggling credit markets. At 8:30, the Labor Department released the unexpectedly poor jobs report. Almost immediately, the economists at JPMorgan Chase — who only last week had told clients they thought the economy was still growing — reversed course and said a recession appeared to have started earlier this year.
Stocks fell when the markets opened at 9:30, recovered and then fell again, with the Standard & Poor 500-stock index closing down 0.8 percent. Traders became even more confident, based on the price of futures contracts, that the Fed would cut its benchmark interest rate three-quarters of a point, to 2.25 percent, when policy makers meet on March 18.
Even the one apparent piece of good news in the employment report was a mirage. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent, from 4.9 percent in January, but only because more people stopped looking for work and thus were not counted as unemployed by the government.
Over the last year, the number of officially unemployed has risen by 500,000, while the number of people outside the labor force — neither working nor looking for a job — has risen by 1.3 million.
The median household earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau. It now looks as if a full decade may pass before most Americans receive a raise.
如果歷史是可靠的向?qū)�，那么�?008年的衰退就是不可避免的了。
星期五公布的令人失望的就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示，總體就業(yè)率比3個(gè)月前有所下降。自從上個(gè)世紀(jì)70年代初以來，每次出現(xiàn)這樣的下降，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退就會(huì)隨之而來，或者已經(jīng)來到了。
如果好日子真的結(jié)束了，那么它們開始的時(shí)候根本就沒那么好。如果把通貨膨脹考慮在內(nèi)，大多數(shù)美國家庭的年收入還不如1999年。自美國人口普查局在上個(gè)世紀(jì)60年代開始統(tǒng)計(jì)以來，從來沒有一次持續(xù)的`經(jīng)濟(jì)增長結(jié)束時(shí)家庭收入不創(chuàng)新高的。
幾個(gè)月來，政策制定者和華爾街的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們一直在預(yù)測(cè)并希望盡管有房貸危機(jī)，但美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)一系列積極的降息措施能夠使經(jīng)濟(jì)保持增長。但是星期五，這種可能性似乎減小了。
早上8點(diǎn)過后不久，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)又宣布了另一項(xiàng)意在給掙扎中的信貸市場(chǎng)松綁的措施。8點(diǎn)30分，勞工部公布了意想不到的糟糕的就業(yè)情況報(bào)告。摩根大通銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們幾乎馬上就改口說，衰退在今年更早些時(shí)候似乎已經(jīng)開始了。而僅僅在上周，他們還在對(duì)客戶說，他們認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然在增長。
9點(diǎn)30分股市開盤后先跌后反彈然后再跌。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)收盤時(shí)跌0.8%。根據(jù)期貨合同的價(jià)格，交易商們更加相信政策制定者們?cè)?月18日開會(huì)時(shí)，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)降3/4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的基準(zhǔn)利率至2.25%。
即使是就業(yè)報(bào)告中的一條明顯的好消息也是虛幻的。失業(yè)率從1月份的4.9% 降到了4.8%，但這只是因?yàn)楦嗟娜送Ｖ沽苏夜ぷ鳎蚨鴽]有被政府統(tǒng)計(jì)為失業(yè)。
去年，官方統(tǒng)計(jì)的失業(yè)人數(shù)增加了50萬，而勞動(dòng)力隊(duì)伍以外的人數(shù)——那些既不工作也不找工作的人數(shù)增加了130萬。
根據(jù)美國人口普查局的統(tǒng)計(jì)，2006年的平均家庭收入是48，201美元，而1999年是49，244美元。看起來似乎在整個(gè)10年過去之前，大多數(shù)美國人的收入將得不到提高。
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