風險主題短文及譯文學英語
The Meaning of Risk 風險的內(nèi)涵
What exactly is meant by the word "risk"? The word is certainly used frequently in everyday conversation and seems to be well understood by those using it.
To most people, risk implies some form of uncertainty about an outcome in a given situation. An event might occur and, if it does, the outcome is not favourable to us; it is not an outcome we look forward to. The word "risk" implies both doubt about the future, and the fact that the outcome could leave us in a worse position than we are in at the moment.
Writers, particularly in America, have produced a number of definitions of "risk".
Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence.
Risk is a combination of hazards.
Risk is unpredictability -- the tendency that actual results may differ from predicted results.
Risk is uncertainty of loss.
Risk is the possibility of loss.
Looking at the definitions there does seem to emerge some kind of common-thread running through each of them. Firstly, there is an underlying idea of uncertainty, what we have referred to as doubt about the future. Secondly, there is the implication that there are different levels or degrees of risk. Thirdly, there is the idea of a result having been brought about by one cause or causes.
If a child is playing in the middle of a busy road; if a workman is using a machine while he is unaware, that it is faulty and dangerous; if the pedestrians are unaware that a wall running alongside a pavement is a dangerous condition and about to collapse, what will happen to them? There is an element of risk and uncertainty in each of these situations. The child may escape free of injury, the machine may hold out until the workman has finished using it and the wall may not collapse and injure passersby. Alternatively, there could be serious injury in each case. Uncertainty can exist in the abstract, it is not dependent on being recognized as existing by those who may be most directly involved. Uncertainty is linked more to the event itself, rather than to any personal perception of the existence of uncertainty.
“風險”這個詞的真正含義是什么?這個詞在我們的日常會話中經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)，它似乎被人們所理解。
對大多數(shù)人來說，風險指的是，在特定情況下某種結(jié)果的不確定性形式。某種事件可能會發(fā)生，如果發(fā)生，其結(jié)果對我們不利。它不是我們期望的結(jié)果�！帮L險”既包含著對未來的疑慮，又包含著發(fā)生的結(jié)果將使我們處于比現(xiàn)在更糟的境地。
許多學者，特別是美國的學者，他們對風險的概念下了一些定義：
風險是不幸事故發(fā)生的可能性。
風險是——切危險的綜合體。
風險是一種無法預測的，其趨勢是，實際后果可能不同于預測后果。
風險是損失的不確定性。
風險是損失的可能性。
綜合以上定義，有一種共同的思路貫穿于每個定義之中，那就是我們已經(jīng)提到過的對未來的疑慮。第二，定義意味著風險存在不同的水準和不同級別。第三，定義包含這樣—個思想，即風險是由于某個原因或某些原因帶來的一種結(jié)果。
如果一個小孩在繁華的道路中玩耍；如果一個工人正在使用機器而不知道機器有毛病或有危險；如果過往的行人不知道人行道旁的圍墻處于危險狀態(tài)并要倒塌，那么將會發(fā)生什么情況?每種情況都有風險和不確定性的因素，小孩有可能逃避傷害，機器有可能不會發(fā)生意外，圍墻可能沒有傷害過往行人。與此相反，也許每種情況都可能發(fā)生嚴重的傷亡事故。不確定性存在于抽象之中，它不依賴于那些有直接聯(lián)系的人是否承認它的存在，與不確定性聯(lián)系的主要是事件本身，而不是人們對不確定性存在的認識。
風險的分類
We now turn our attention to the classes into which risk can be placed. This is different from scrutinizing the actual idea of risk, we are now looking at the whole concept of risk and grouping together similar classes of risk. Of the many classes, we will look at three.
Financial and non-financial risks
A financial risk is one where the outcome can be measure() in monetary terms. This is easy to see in the case of material damage to property, theft of property or lost business profit following a fire. In cases of personal injury, it can also be possible to measure financial loss in terms of a court award of damages, or as a result of negotiation between lawyers and insurers. In any of these cases, the outcome of the risky situation can be measured financially.
There are other situations where this kind of measurement is not possible. Take the case of the choice of a new car, or the selection of an item from a restaurant menu. These could be construed as risky situations, not because the outcome will cause financial loss, but because the outcome could be uncomfortable or disliked in some other way. There may or may not be financial implications but in the main the outcome is not measurable financially but by other, more human, criteria.
Pure and speculative risks
Pure risks involve a loss or, at best, a break-even situation. The outcome can only be unfavourable to us, or leave us in the same position as we enjoyed before the event occurred. The risk of a motor accident, fire at a factory, theft of goods from a store, or injury at work are all pure risks with no element of gain:
The alternative to this is speculative risk, where there is the chance of gain. Investing money in share is a good example. The investment may result in a loss or possibly a break-even position, but the reason it was made was the prospect of gain.
Fundamental and particular risks
Fundamental risks are those which arise from causes outside tile control of any one individual or even a group of individuals. In addition, the effect of fundamental risks is felt by large numbers of people. This classification would include earthquakes, floods, famine, volcanoes and other natural "disasters". However it would not be accurate to limit fundamental risk to naturally occurring perils. Social change, political intervention and war are all capable of being interpreted as fundamental risks.
In contrast to this form of risk, which is impersonal in origin and widespread in effect, we have particular risks. Particular risks are much more personal both in their cause and effect. This would include many of the risks we have already mentioned such as fire, theft, work related injury and motor accidents. All of these risks arise from individual causes and 'affect individuals in their consequences.
我們現(xiàn)在來看風險可以分成哪些類別。這跟審查風險的真實含義不同，我們現(xiàn)在看到的是風險的整體概念并且是把相似的風險匯集起來。在這許多種類中，我們將看到三類。
財務風險和非財務風險
財務風險是指后果可以用金錢來估量的風險。如果財產(chǎn)遭到實質(zhì)上的損壞或是遭到偷竊，或是火災后商業(yè)利益遭到損失，那是很容易看到的。如果個人受傷，也可能用金錢來估量法定的受傷賠償，或者由律師和保險人進行協(xié)商得出一個賠償金額。無論是哪種情況，風險的后果都可以用金錢來估量。
還有其他一些情況是不可能進行這種估量的。比如選擇一輛新車，或者從餐館菜單中點菜。這些可以被認為是有風險的情況，不是因為其后果會導致經(jīng)濟損失，而是因為其后果可能在其他方面讓人覺得不舒服或者是不喜歡。這可能會牽涉到聲錢，也可能不會，但總的來說，后果不是用金錢而是用其他更具人情味的標準來估量的。
純粹風險和投機風險
純粹風險包括損失或者充其量是收支相抵的情況。其后果只能對我們不利，或者讓我們處于跟事件發(fā)生前一樣的情況下。車禍、工廠的火災、商場貨物的偷竊、或者是工傷，這些風險都是不能獲利的純粹風險。
與之相對的是投機風險，這種風險是有可能獲利的。股票投資就是一個很好的例子。這種投資可能有損失或者可能收支相抵，但是投資的目的是為了獲利。
基本風險和特定風險
基本風險是指那些由超出個人甚至是群體的原因引起的風險。而且很多人都能感受到基本風險的影響。這類風險包括地震、水災、饑荒、火山及其他自然災難。然而，把基本風險局限于自然危險是不準確的。社會變革，政治干涉和戰(zhàn)爭都可以被認為是基本風險。
與這種非人為而有廣泛影響的風險相對的，我們說是特定風險。特定風險在起因和影響兩方面都更加與人相關。它包括我們已經(jīng)提到過的很多風險，例如火災、偷竊、工傷以及車禍。所以這些風險由個人引起并且最終影響到個人。
風險的管理
Over the past few decades we have seen a steady movement towards a more managerial response to these forms of risk. What has emerged is the discipline of risk management. We could define risk management as "the identification, analysis and economic control of those risks which can threaten the assets or earning capacity of an enterprise."
This definition is valuable because it highlights the structured approach which is called for if risks to the business environment are to be managed.
The three-fold nature of risk management is highlighted in the definition. Risks must be identified before they can be measured, and only after their impact has been evaluated can we decide on the most effective method of control.
However we decide to control risk, it must be "economic." There is no point in spending ten pounds to control a risk which can only ever cost five pounds. There will always be a point where spending on risk control has stop.
The definition mentions the assets and earning capacity of an organization. These assets can be physical or human; they are both important and risk management must be seen to have a part to play in both. However, risks do not only strike at assets directly and for this reason the definition also mentions the earning capacity of an enterprise.
Note that the definition uses the word "enterprise" rather than a more restrictive word such as "company" or "manufacturer". The principles of risk management are just as applicable in the service sectors as they are in the manufacturing sectors, and are of equal importance in the public and private sectors of the economy.
When considering risk identification we must remember to take the broad view. We are not solely concerned with what can be insured, or even with what can be controlled. We start from the very basic question, "How can the assets or earning capacity of the enterprise be threatened?" Starting from this position does not place any constraint on us as to what kind of risks we are looking for. We must begin the task in an unblinking manner and identify the whole host of ways in which an organization may be impeded from achieving its objectives.
We could say that there are at least two essentials if risk identification is to be effective.
Firstly, risk identification must be importantly recognized within an enterprise. When this is case, it is often marked down as a task within the job descriptions of a particular manager.
Secondly, the person responsible for risk identification must be armed with the relevant "tools of the trade" and must make use of them.
Once it has been identified that there is a risk, steps have to be taken to measure the potential impact of that risk on the organization. In a practical sense the measurement of risk starts with the gathering of information, followed by tile analysis of past experience, and then moves on to see what the data tells us about the level of frequency and severity of the risk to which an organization is exposed.
We can split the whole area of risk control into physical and financial control.
Physical risk control
We are concerned here with physical steps which can be taken in order to control risk. The first step must be to reduce the level of the risk as far as possible. This means both the chance that something will happen and the severity of the incident, should it occur. There are at least two ways in which we could understand risk reduction.
Pre-loss risk reduction
It is possible to take steps before any event has occurred to minimize risk. The essence of pre-loss reduction of risk is that the effects of the loss are anticipated and steps are taken to ensure that they are kept to a minimum.
Wearing a car seatbelt is a good, personal example. There has been no loss, but the possible effect of a loss has been anticipated and the pre-loss risk reduction step of wearing a belt has been taken.
The use of safety guards on machinery, is an industrial equivalent. There has been no injury, but steps have been taken to reduce the risk of injury.
Post-loss risk control
This form of risk control imagines that the risk has occurred and takes steps to minimize the effect of the loss. The use of automatic fire sprinkler systems fits into this category. Once the fire has started, the sprinklers operate to reduce the impact of the fire.
Financial risk control
We now turn our attention to financial mechanisms which can be used to control risk. These can be divided into two categories.
Risk retention
Once the risk has been identified and controlled in some physical way, it will be necessary to consider how the effects are to be financed, should the worst happen.
In certain situations, it may be wise to retain the risk rather than to seek another form of protection, such as insurance. We have already mentioned the problems associated with insuring high frequency, low severity events and they certainly fall into the self-retention category. The cost of these events could be paid for out of current income and passed on to the customer via the price of the product (or service) , which is offered by the organization. Alternatively a fund could be established, out of which the losses are to be paid.
Risk transfer
Insurance is a risk transfer mechanism by which an organization can exchange its uncertainty for certainty. The uncertainty experienced would include whether a loss will occur, when it will take place, how severe it will be and how frequent there might be in a year. This uncertainty makes it very difficult to budget and so the organization seeks ways of controlling the financial effect of the risk. Insurance offers the opportunity to exchange this uncertain loss for a certain loss: the insurance premium. The organization agrees to pay a fixed premium, in return, the insurance company agrees to meet any losses which fall within the terms of the policy. This is a risk transfer mechanism which is of immense value not only to industry, but also to individuals.
在過去的幾十年我們已經(jīng)看到對于這些風險的管理方法越來越趨于穩(wěn)定。出現(xiàn)了風險管理的原則。我們可以把風險管理定義為“對那些會威脅企業(yè)資產(chǎn)和收入能力的風險進行識別、分析和經(jīng)濟控制”。
這個定義十分有用，因為它強調(diào)，如果商業(yè)環(huán)境出現(xiàn)風險而必須進行管理時，要用系統(tǒng)的方法來管理。
定義中已經(jīng)強調(diào)了風險管理的三方面。風險在估計前必須先識別，只有估計出它們的影響后，我們才能決定出控制它們的最有效的方法。
不管我們決定怎樣控制風險，都必須是“經(jīng)濟”的�；ㄙM10英磅去控制只需花費5英磅的風險是沒有意義的，停止控制風險才有意義。
定義涉及一個組織機構(gòu)的資產(chǎn)和收人能力。這些資產(chǎn)可以是物質(zhì)的也可以是人力的，兩者都很重要。而且必須看到，風險管理對這兩者都起作用。然而風險不只是直接影響資產(chǎn)，為此定義中也涉及了企業(yè)的收人能力。
要注意定義中用的詞是“企業(yè)”而不是用其他的像“公司”或“制造商”這樣限制性的詞。風險管理的原則在服務部門的應用跟在制造部門的應用是一樣的，并且在社會公共領域和私人領域中同等重要。
就風險識別而言，我們必須記得要從宏觀上來看。我們不僅只是關心什么能被保，或者什么能被控制。我們從最基本的問題開始，“企業(yè)的資產(chǎn)和收入能力怎樣受到威脅?”從這點出發(fā)絲毫不會限制我們要尋找什么樣的風險。我們必須毫不隱瞞地開始這項任務，積極識別妨礙一個企業(yè)達到其目標的所有方面。
我們可以說，要有效進行風險識別至少有兩個要點。
第一，必須認識到風險的識別在企業(yè)內(nèi)部是很重要的。這時，這一點經(jīng)常被納入某個經(jīng)理的工作范疇。
第二，負責風險識別的.人員必須配備有關的“技術(shù)工具”，并且必須利用這些工具。
一旦識別有風險，就要采取措施估計風險對企業(yè)的潛在影響。風險估計的實際做法是首先要收集信息，然后分析以往經(jīng)驗，再通過數(shù)據(jù)掌握一個企業(yè)所暴露出來的風險頻率和(或)幅度。
我們可以把整個風險領域劃分為物質(zhì)上的風險控制和財務上的風險控制。
物質(zhì)上的風險控制
這里我們關心的是可以采取什么樣的物質(zhì)措施控制風險。第一步必須是盡可能地減輕風險的程度。一旦事件發(fā)生，就意味著事情發(fā)生的可能性以及事情的嚴重程度。我們可以看到至少有兩種方法可以減少風險。
防損
在事件發(fā)生前采取措施把風險降到最低是可能的。防損就是預測損失并采取措施以保證風險保持在最低。
對此，開車系安全帶就是一個很好的個人的例子。這就是進行了風險預測，然后采取了系安全帶的防災舉措。預測了可能發(fā)生的損失，系上安全帶就是采取了損失控制措施。
機器上運用安全防御措施也是一樣。沒有發(fā)生傷亡，但還是會采取措施減少傷亡危險。
減損
這種風險控制則是想象風險已經(jīng)發(fā)生，然后要采取措施把損失造成的影響降到最低。火災自動灑水系統(tǒng)的運用就屬于這種風險控制�！┗馂拈_始，灑水系統(tǒng)就會啟動以減少火災造成的影響。
財務上的風險控制
我們現(xiàn)在要注意看的是控制風險的財務方法。它可以分為兩類。
風險自留
一旦風險被確認并且用某種自然方法進行了控制，就有必要考慮如果發(fā)生最糟的情形將要怎樣用金錢計算出其產(chǎn)生的影響。
在某些情況下，保留風險而不去尋求另一種保護，例如保險，是明智的。我們已經(jīng)提到過一些跟高頻率低幅度的事件有關的風險，它們肯定歸入自我保留一類。這些事件的費用可以從現(xiàn)有收入中扣除，并且以企業(yè)提供的產(chǎn)品(或服務)的價錢傳遞給消費者�；蛘呖梢越⒁还P基金，從中支出損失。
風險轉(zhuǎn)移
保險是一種風險轉(zhuǎn)移過程。通過它，一個企業(yè)可以把它的不確定性轉(zhuǎn)換成確定性。常有的不確定性包括：損失是否會發(fā)生，什么時候會發(fā)生，會有多嚴重，一個時期內(nèi)會發(fā)生多少次。這種不確定性使得預算變得非常困難，所以企業(yè)找尋控制財務支出的方法以及把不確定損失轉(zhuǎn)換成確定損失的機會，即保險保費。企業(yè)同意支付一定數(shù)額的保費，反過來，保險公司同意承擔保單條款范圍內(nèi)的任何損失。這是一個風險轉(zhuǎn)移過程，不只是對某行業(yè)而且對個人都很有利。
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